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On logical quantitative methods in politics

Caruso, Matteo (2021) On logical quantitative methods in politics. Advisor: Belmonte, Dr. Alessandro. Coadvisor: Taagepera, Prof. Rein . pp. 250. [IMT PhD Thesis]

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The first chapter introduces the methodology of logical quantitative models and its applications to political sciences. The second chapter explains the conversion of votes to seats. I use the law of minority attrition, expanding its form into a final model which is applicable from single member district to several electoral systems. The third chapter introduces the estimation of party seats from the previous elections using a weighted regression with independent variables jointly: 1) the product of the assembly size and the district magnitude, 2) the past values of the biggest party shares, and 3) the number of Effective parties and simply considered. Chapter four develops a probability density function with five inflection points which describes any party system. It better catches the asymmetries among the party seats distribution at nationwide level. Chapter five implements the Downsian (or positional) competition model that describes the left-right space occupied by each party through Beta functions that I have tested on the Italian elections from 1992 to 2018. Chapter six presents an in-depth qualitative analysis of the hypothesis that the more proportional an electoral system, the more the parties tend to centripetal competition, thus connecting ideological terms, effective number of parties and electoral system. In chapter seven, I suggest an alternative logical method to aggregate electoral flows, which resolves Goodman’s problematics and provides a simpler solution than that of G. King. Chapter eight provides tools to more accurately calculate the optimal value of S (Taagepera and Shugart, 1989, p. 175), and unprecedently, the optimal value of other institutional variables such as: the district magnitude, the Gallagher’s index of dis-representation, and the dis-representation index attributable to an electoral system (De), originally developed in this thesis. Chapter nine wants to determine an equilibrium between parties’ and voters’ “electoral utility”, which is the quantity of dis-representation which benefits a group of parties and voters in the system, producing disutility for the others; this chapter enriches the law of minority attrition including thresholds and majority premiums (MJPs) and strategic vote, using a primary game theory approach and the "Maximin" Rawlsian theory (1971) as a benchmark for equality. Chapter ten provides an overview of links among the new tools and knowledge developed in this thesis, with the final aim of the normative building of an optimal electoral system, which can warrant both logical coherence and social equity as categorized by Arrow (1951).

Item Type: IMT PhD Thesis
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
PhD Course: Economics management and data science
Identification Number: 10.13118/imtlucca/e-theses/337
NBN Number: urn:nbn:it:imtlucca-27510
Date Deposited: 04 Aug 2021 07:02
URI: http://e-theses.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/337

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