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Conceptualizing and explaining post-soviet authoritarian breakdowns : cases of "Color revolutions"

Rahmetov, Anvarjon (2013) Conceptualizing and explaining post-soviet authoritarian breakdowns : cases of "Color revolutions". Advisor: Morlino, Prof. Leonardo. Coadvisor: Bonfreschi, Dr. Lucia . pp. 247. [IMT PhD Thesis]

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Post-Soviet politics since 2003 has been characterized by mobilization of opposition supporters after allegedly fraudulent elections, demanding the re-run of elections or resignation of the incumbent leaders. When such mobilizations succeeded in unseating the incumbent leaders or disrupting pre-arranged power successions, they came to be known as the ‘color revolutions.’ This dissertation seeks to conceptualize and explain the color revolutions. Comparing various conceptualizations, I conclude that it is best to conceptualize these events as authoritarian breakdowns. Conceptualizing the ‘color revolutions’ as authoritarian breakdown rids these events of teleological expectations of regime change and helps the researcher focus on a narrow and clearly defined set of political phenomena. The causes and facilitating conditions of authoritarian breakdowns are explored using case studies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia, as well as qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of 19 cases of post-electoral protest between 2000 and 2012. The case studies confirm the importance of political actors, their unity and organizational capacity, the regime type and media freedom, as well as predispositions of the electorate to change. However, a more systematic test of all the conditions in terms of ‘necessity’ and ‘sufficiency’ for the outcome demonstrate the following. In terms of necessity for the outcome, division within the security forces is the most consistent condition, followed by succession crisis. In terms of ‘sufficiency,’ however, only one condition, divisions within the security forces, passes consistency tests.

Item Type: IMT PhD Thesis
Subjects: J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
PhD Course: Political Science and Institutional Change
Identification Number: 10.6092/imtlucca/e-theses/113
NBN Number: urn:nbn:it:imtlucca-27146
Date Deposited: 26 Nov 2013 14:41
URI: http://e-theses.imtlucca.it/id/eprint/113

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